UK Net Migration

UK Net Migration

August 2019

Lets compare net migration with how the overall population is growing.

Net Migration

Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2014; ONS

"...583,000 people immigrated to the UK in the year ending June 2014. An estimated 323,000 people emigrated from the UK in the year ending June 2014. Net long-term migration to the UK was estimated to be 260,000 in the year ending June 2014. ..."

Net migration data can be obtained from Net migration to the UK, The Migration Observatory:

2014 - 313k

2015 - 332k

2016 - 281k

2017 - 285k

2018 - 258k

Clearly the net figure is (in-out) but doesn't reflect the true pattern of the displacement of the indigenous people. A replacement of ~550,000 each year.


Typing "uk population 2015" into Google we find the UK population over the following years. The data is sourced from the ONS, with links such as Annual mid-year population estimates, UK: 2013

2013 - 64.1 million

2014 - 64.6 million

2015 - 65.11 million

2016 - 65.65 million

2017 - 66.04 million

2018 - 66.64 million []

2019 - 67 million []

As we see, the population has increased from 64 million to 67 million between 2013-2019. That is a rise of 3 million in 6 years or an average of ~0.5 million/year.

In the ONS report Overview of the UK population: November 2018 the ONS states:

"The UK population is projected to continue growing, reaching almost 73 million by 2041."

With the 2019 population being 67 million and predicted to be 73 million by 2014 that is a rise of 6 million in 22 years, or 273k/year. Where do they get this figure from?


We see that although the annual net migration is around ~300k, the population grows at ~500k each year. This is clearly due not only to migration but also the indigenous people and new migrants having more children.

How the ONS arrives at the figure of 73 million by 2041 is nonsense. Using the 0.5million/year it would be more like 67+11 = 78 million. Thus, we can conclude that 73 million is the lowerbound estimate and upperbound more like 78 million. We could split the difference and say that it will be around ~75million. That is an additional 8 million people (12% more) living in the UK over the next 20 years.