Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated Death Data

Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated Death Data

On the 1st of November 2021, the Mirror published the following article, relaying ONS data:

Unjabbed Brits 32 times more likely to die of Covid - but protection is wearing off, Mirror, 1st of November 2021.

In the article they include the following graph:

Deaths for unvaccinated and vaccinated.

At first glance, the difference between the unvaccinated and vaccinated seems massive. However, we must bear in mind that the months January-May there were more unvaccinated people than vaccinated. Let's now remind ourselves of the vaccine uptake in the UK:

As the figure shows, it took until around mid-summer for the number of people vaccinated to outweigh the unvaccinated.

Thus, to compare apples against apples we can only compare a state when 50% of the people are vaccinated and 50% are unvaccinated. The figure shows that the UK was in a state of 50%-50% vaccinated-unvaccinated on the 8th of July 2021.

The percentage (50%) of people double-vaccinated in the UK on the 8th of July 2021. Source.

Now return to the first figure of deaths per 100,000 comparing the vaccinated against the unvaccinated, looking around the 8th of July. And guess what - we see little difference.

On the up to date far right side of the death graph, we do see more deaths per 100,000 people in the unvaccinated than the vaccinated, although now a greatly reduced difference.

The article admits that things turn around towards the end of the year, by stating:

"...Since the first week of August, 3,208 fully vaccinated people have died after contracting Covid, the data shows. In the week of September 24 alone, coronavirus was listed on the death certificates of 444 people who had been given both jabs. In the same week 95 people who had not been vaccinated died after contracting the virus - although the number of people who have had at least one jab is far higher than those who have not...."

Thus, from August to November there were 444 vaccinated deaths and 95 unvaccinated deaths. Now that's strange because as of the 24th of September there had been 65% double-vaccinated and so 35% unvaccinated, or a 65/35=1.86 ratio, and yet a 444/95=4.7 vaccinated/unvaccinated death ratio; 4.7/1.86=2.5. Isn't vaccination supposed to save you?

The article states that between January and September:

"The ASMR for deaths involving COVID-19 for unvaccinated people is 32 times greater than that of people who had received two doses at least 21 days ago."

OK. If there is a 32 times greater chance of dying from/with COVID-19 then why in the first graph shown above isn't the death rate on the right hand side 32 times higher? We see a death value of around 5/100,000 in September/October for the vaccinated. So, if the 32 times value is correct then we should see a 5x32=160/100,000 rate for the unvaccinated. However, we are only seeing around 8/100,000. Things don't add up do they!

Highly Questionable

Let's go with the official ONS data in that around 5/100,000 vaccinated and 8/100,000 died "involving COVID-19" in September 2021. That's 13/100,000 total. With a population of 70 million that equates to (70,000,000/100,000)*13 = 9,100/week. In the UK around 12,000 die every week (~624,000/year). So, are we seriously supposed to believe that (9,100/12,000)*100 = 77% of all deaths in September 2021 were COVID-19 related? Really! Give me a break.

ONS Data

Clearly, the data behind the first figure above is dodgy, and hardly surprising since it came from a mainstream media article. Thus, I tracked down the source data from the ONS website, as shown below.

UK deaths as of October 2021.

Source: ONS.

It shows that deaths in the UK as of October 2021. In Week 42, Northern Ireland had the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 at 16.6% (52 deaths), followed by Wales at 11.4% (81 deaths), Scotland at 9.9% (130 deaths) and England at 6.7% (708 deaths). Of all deaths in the UK in Week 42, 974 involved COVID-19, or (974/12,935)*100= 7.5% of total deaths. I still believe that figure is massively exaggerated, but let's go with the official data. That informs us that 100-7.5=92.5% of deaths were NOT COVID-19 related, and yet some presentations of the data try and make out every death was COVID-19 related.

The data shows that in 2021 COVD-19 did NOT actually play a key role in the total number of deaths. Over 90% of all deaths were due to other factors.

Between the 5 months of April - August 2021 COVID-19 with/from deaths throughout the UK hardly registered relative to the weekly going rate of around 12,000. And yet think back to the imposed on-going restrictions of face nappies, social-distancing, closing of companies and public events when a single case was detected, disruption to peoples way of life, the injecting of fear into people, impact on the treatment of far more serious conditions, etc. A totally disproportionate response to what is and has always been a minority illness.